Is the Sun Sending more Powerful Flares in 2023 than Earlier?

Ameya Paleja (a science writer based in Hyderabad, India) reported to “Science” that not only this, but more coronal mass ejections (CME) and geomagnetic storms are waiting for us in the times ahead.

Hi readers!

You might be thinking what I am talking about? You might not have heard this before but it a fascinating and mesmerizing reality which you better get ready to know. (pl. read the original article at the link below) 

https://interestingengineering.com/science/sun-sending-out-more-x-class-flares),

The planet Earth has seen many intriguing and alluring events ever since its birth but for the gigantic ball of hydrogen and helium floating nearly a hundred million miles away (The Sun), it is just a breakdown or a fault in its timeline.

It has marked the beginning of 2023 with pulsating activity like sending some powerful solar flares towards the planet Earth. Dear reader, be prepared to face consequences, whatever they are?

Solar flares are eruptions of electromagnetic radiation from the Sun when magnetic fields in some regions get very intense. The Sun goes through an 11-year cycle (remember? I mentioned this in one my blogs on climate change) wherein its poles turn over with North and South poles switch places consequently, the magnetic field  move to align itself to the changed poles. It takes about another 11 years for the Sun’s North and South poles to flip back again to previous position.

This solar cycle generates some activity on the sun’s surface by producing  sunspots which are caused by the Sun’s magnetic fields. As the magnetic field change, so does the amount of activity on the Sun’s surface (Please see figure below).

Evolution of the Sun in extreme ultraviolet light from 2010 through 2020, as seen from the telescope aboard Europe’s PROBA2 spacecraft. Credit: Dan Seaton/European Space Agency (Collage by NOAA/JPL-Caltech)

This figure shows the start of an 11-year solar cycle with the start of  2010. As years pass, the magnetic field changes with the maximum intensity reaches around 2014, start shrinking again and reaches to the minimum around 2020 after 11 years. A new cycle start again and if 2010 was previously North pole, in the new cycle, it will become South pole and cycle will begin considering 2020 as North pole: the maximum magnetic activity of this cycle is expected in the year 2024-25.

However, ever since the sun has reached its near solar cycle maximum (2023 in the current year), it has become most unstable with its volatility at its peak. Hence several sunspots are expected to erupt simultaneously during this period (2023-2025) which may include a deadly solar storm to hit the planet earth. Intense magnetic fields can even slow down convection which drops the temperature of the Sun’s surface, giving it a darker appearance called a sunspot.  

One way to track the solar cycle is by counting the number of sunspots. The beginning of a solar cycle is a solar minimum, or least sunspots. The middle of the solar cycle is the solar maximum which mean maximum intensity and sunspot. As the cycle ends, it fades back to the solar minimum and then a new cycle begins.

Presently, sunspots are giving out extremely powerful “X-Class flares” according to classification system that divides solar flares based on their strength. Those lower in intensity are classified as M-class, moderate intensity as A, B, or C and highest intensity as X-Class flares which can:

affect Earth’s magnetic field with the potential to damage satellites and communications equipment as well as causing, power grids to overload  

(Any analogy seen in the county in the near past?)

Since January 1^{st ,} 2023, Sunspot AR3182, has been active, producing X-class solar flares and involved in the release of CME which is magnetically charged plasma (one of the four fundamental states of matter) from the solar surface.

Another sunspot (AR3190), with a width of about four times of the Earth-size has an unstable magnetic field, which can produce more X-class solar flares in the near future.

Since a CME is loaded with charged particles, it interacts with the Earth’s magnetic field and accelerates them along its field lines. This geomagnetic storm results in bright light visible as auroras.

The interaction of charged particles with the atmosphere can cause a temporary loss of radio waves, affect communication and navigation services and can wipe out critical infrastructure and bring the global economy to a grinding halt.

Giant eruptions of solar flares and CME will also increase which can send powerful bursts of energy and material into space with effects on electricity grids on Earth.

Keeping this 11year cycle in mind, let me tell you an interesting thing.

The number of days in a lunar calendar is 354 which means one moon year will be of 354 days but,

According to the solar calendar, one solar year will be 365 days.

Accordingly, there is a difference of 11 days between solar and lunar  calendars (365-354=11).

In 33 years, the difference will be 11 days × 33 = 363 days which means approximately one year. Thus, after 33 years, there will an extra year.

We know that one year from today, the earth will be at the same position as it is today. In a similar context, 33 earth years makes a difference of 1 year in lunar-solar calendar which means in 33 years, earth, sun and moon everything will be at the same position as it is now.

That’s why in “The Dark” (the famous fiction serial at Netflix) people time travel (the concept of movement between certain points in time, analogous to the movement between different points in space by a person) either 33 year into future or 33 years into the past thinking that if we go either in past or in future; sun, moon and the earth will be at the same position at it is today which eventually help in predicting various things.

Will it happen? Nobody knows. In India, 33 sheep died simultaneously in 1986. The veterinarian who reports it quotes Mark 13.33 (probably he was familiar with the phenomenon) he kept shouting Be on guard! Be alert! You don’t know when that time will come?

“Meaning thereby that exact time cannot be predicted.”

Because we know that the universe is always in motion and is continuously expanding. Thus, we cannot say that everything is going to be at the same position 33 years from now. This is what makes “The Dark” fiction. But dear readers, our holy book has explained this 1400 years ago, however, we will only believe when it will come from the west (what a shame).

John Lennon once said,

“I believe in God, but not as one thing, not as an old man in the sky. I believe that what people call God is something in all of us. I believe that what Jesus and Mohammed ^PBUH and Buddha and all the rest said was right. It’s just that the translations have gone wrong”.

See you next week. Till then, take care, Bye.