Renowned Scientists and Agriculturist Dr. Swaminathan once said,
“If agriculture goes wrong, nothing else will have a chance to go right.”
Hi readers, are you now convinced (after reading the previous blogs) that data don’t lie? because it clearly indicated that production of our two staple crops and one cash (Sugar Cane) crop is increasing over the years though very slowly.
The question is why our productivity is steadily increasing especially in the presence of
lots of hue and cry about climate change and global warming?
After all, crops are supposed to be the hardest hit entity by this danger?
The Answer is simple. Either the data in various Economic Surveys of Pakistan is fake (fabricated)? or our Agricultural productivity is not considerably affected by the climate change? Let see again what the data says?
Because data don’t lie
Looking at Fig.1 which is depicting observed annual mean temperature of Pakistan for 120 years starting from 1901-2021.
(The source of this data is Climate Change Portal of the World Bank. 2022.
It is clearly evidenced that mean temperature that was 20.51oC in1901 could increase only up to 21.68oC (1.17oC increase in 120 years) in entire Pakistan with maximum increase observed in Sind. The variations in mean maximum temperature were also observed for June, July and August which ranged between 38.30oC (1901-1930), 38.21oC (1931-1960), 38.24oC (1961-1990), and 38.67oC (1991-2020) which means an increase of 0.37oC in 120 year. Hence per-se, climate is not changing (or warming up) considerably in Pakistan and if it does our agriculture should be the first entity to be affected but apparently, this is not the case because Data don’t depict this.
However, according to the World Bank, Pakistan is vulnerable to climate change. This is also corroborated in Map 1. which is depicting over 25% decrease in Agricultural productivity in Pakistan (This data is from CLINE: a web-tool that allows the users to visualize different dendrogram structures, showing not only the structures themselves, but also linking areas of similarity across multiple structures).
Farmer’s comments on slowly increasing agricultural productivity are that “we are adding lots of organic matter to our soils and are providing heavy irrigation water and chemical input thus, our agricultural productivity is not being affected” which means we are mitigating the effects of so called climate change but at what cost? Can we afford heavy Agrochemical input and irrigation? Certainly not.
The observed average annual mean temperature of Pakistan for 120 years also showed the highest ever recorded temperatures in Pakistan in 1941 (21.39oC); 1988 (21.24oC) and in 2018 (21.87oC): all the three were recorded in Sind. However, temperature reached to 50oC in Dalbandin, Baluchistan in 2010 and massive floods were also witnessed in Punjab and Sind that were generally considered to be the seasonal and local variations which are very evident in Fig. 2 where mean monthly maximum temperature varies between 16-36oC and mean minimum monthly temperature varies between 9.5 to 12oC. In northern areas however, minimum temperature ranges between 0 to -7oC and below which are obviously the local variations. But, as I explained in the first blog,
“The sun’s atmosphere produces solar flares which affects the space weather. The frequency of these events appears to be connected to a solar sunspot cycle of about 11 years during which the number of sunspots on the sun will grow and shrink regularly”
Dear readers, this 11 years sunspot cycle reminds me of 2010’s catastrophic floods in Pakistan, and unprecedented heat wave in Russia and Western Europe which the world has reported pensively. This 11 years sunspot cycle has passed in 2021 and this summer, we are again witnessing massive heat wave in Europe, heavy rains in Sind especially in Karachi and again in Baluchistan where 8 water Dams have been washed away, and hundreds of peoples are missing. Let’s see what the future holds for Punjab this summer.
Figure 2. is also indicating the mean monthly rainfall data for the 30 years (1991-2021) which ranges between150 to nearly 500 mm and it seems that its variable amount is available whenever it is needed. However, mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and rainfall data for 120 years indicated variations.
Figure 3. indicated that like temperature, the pattern of rainfall is also changing as the highest recorded (30 years mean) rainfall was 495 mm (1901-1930), 495.07mm (1931-1960), 583.61mm (1961-1990), and 624.69mm (1991-2020): all in Islamabad, which means 129.69 mm increase in maximum rainfall and 3.0 mm increase in minimum rainfall in 120 year (significantly higher than the temperature).
Figure 4 on the other hand is indicating historical precipitation in Pakistan (Source: Q. Z. et al, 2009. Climate Change indicator of Pakistan. Technical Report 22. Pakistan Meteorological Department, Islamabad.).
It is clear that between 1901-1954, maximum rainfall (600 mm) was observed between 1906-1911 while minimum rainfall (250mm) was observed in 1946. Similarly, between 1955-2007, maximum rainfall (605 mm) was observed in 1956 while minimum rainfall (300 mm) was observed in 1971. Thus both figures 3 & 4 clearly indicated that Pakistan has not yet received more than 630 mm and less than 156 mm rainfall during 120 years obviously with some local and/or cyclic variations. Hence, frequency of rain fall remains the same during 120 years but its pattern is changing and this is what we have been observing for the last two decades.
This has been corroborated by Map 2 which predicted changes in precipitation from the year 2000 to 2050 and are measured by Commonwealths Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), Australia. This data is predicting about 100 mm more rain in some parts of Sind with no change in precipitation in Afghanistan. This is significant as it is also corroborated by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA (Map 3) which is indicating 100-200 mm rain in some parts of interior Sind (Map 3) and also in Baluchistan (Map 4). Map 4 is also predicting more irrigated rice production in Sind and Baluchistan along with increased rainfall. This is what we are witnessing now a days which also seems to be connected with 11 years solar cycle.
Hence, what I have been trying to say is that climate has not significantly changed in Pakistan and what we are witnessing in Agricultural sector in Pakistan is mismanagement and lack of awareness especially the lack of critical knowledge which doesn’t allow us to think rationally and devise strategies to use the observed and predicated changes to our benefit.
To me, it appeared that climate change (if any) is not a mess and disaster as is being loudly portrayed, but a hope and opportunity which the world is ignoring conveniently.
Just see these maps and the predications therein and
I will see you next week with excellent ideas on how we can use this hope and opportunity for increasing agricultural productivity?
Paul Chatfield, Technical Manager: Syngenta, Australia says,
“Agriculture is the noblest of all Alchemy; for it turns earth, and even manure, into gold, conferring upon its cultivator the additional reward of health”.
I will let you know how?
Take care
Bye
